金融風暴對大陸的專案管理影響/ PMI總會 採訪 roger, PgMP 全文
記者提問: 1.How is the current economic situation in China affecting projects? 2.How is the global economic situation affecting project management in the country? 3.Is project management a good career right now in China? 4.Is the recent stimulus announcement in China going to be a good thing for projects and project managers? 5.Is there a renewed focus on continuing education for project managers? 6.What industries in China do you see as booming for project managers?
roger回覆:
基本上儘管全球金融風暴影響甚鉅,在亞洲諸國,因國家政策及民風保守,受創程度較少。特別是中國、南韓等國家,因盛行保護主義,因此並未特別受創。然而保護力再強的國家還是無法避免受傷,外部大宗需求如美國的經濟衰退,導致了以生產為主的中國直接性的影響,例如最明顯的外銷訂單的減少,影響了進行中或尚未進行中的專案。大陸的工作者也指出,部分待研發的專案若有中高風險也增加了被取消進行的機率。但是,中國清華大學-中國與世界經濟研究中心主任李稻葵特別指出,國際金融危機對中國只是“20秒鐘的短暫停”( http://www.cenet.org.cn/article.asp?articleid=35691 ),尤其中國近年經濟快速發展,有著龐大的內部資金可運用,中國將比任亞洲任何國家還要快速的站起。 As the global economic meltdown continues, with some of the European economies now slipping into recession, most of the countries in Asia are not so severely affected. This can be largely attributed to an environment of protectionism and conservative financial investment, especially in China and South Korea. However, regardless of how protective these countries have been, the dramatic plunge of export demands, from such countries as America, still affects these countries income directly. For China, the world's largest producer and exporter, most of their industries have had to close down or drastically cut production, or cancel projects under development. However, this has been described as only a “20 second pause” in China’s long and continual development in the 21st century, by David Lee, the deputy of the Center for China in the World Economy (http://www.cenet.org.cn/article.asp?articleid=35691). This is particularly true of China’s recent rapid economy growth which has generated massive domestic capital. When China recovers, China will recover more quickly than any other Asian country.
專案管理對經濟發展有重要的影響。中國政府在過去2001-2005年間的十五年計畫(類似近年台灣的愛台十二項計畫)、2008的北京奧運計畫等等,都大量的需要專案管理知識來運作,加上常年發展所需之經費,多向世界銀行及其他富裕國家申請貸款,各式各樣發展的招標、BOT等,對專案管理人才的需求渴望相當高,光是奧運發展對專案管理的需求就創造了一萬五千位PMP的需求。在去年2008年,中國政府推出了大型計畫「家電下鄉」。此專案計畫無視金融風暴影響,預計五年內將提升商機超過約18兆人民幣,除了滿足內需市場外,也間接帶動並受惠於台灣企業,近日台灣相關企業則接獲此專案計畫之液晶電視訂單。(http://biz.cn.yahoo.com/09-03-/43/sx8v.html) A large reliance on project management has always underpinned China’s major successes. From Beijing’s Olympic Game in 2008, to the ‘Five Year Plan’ of 2001-2005 (similar to Taiwan’s Twelve Major Programs), the Chinese government have been running these national programs with the guidance of project management, and with the skills and knowledge offered by project management professionals. The demand for project management professionals has intensified as more and more bids, BOTs, or massive projects, wait to be undertaken, or from large investments from world banks, or wealthy countries, to stimulate China’s development. The Beijing Olympic Games alone created a demand for 15,000 PMPs. Last year, in 2008, the Chinese government launched a national “Household Appliances To The Countryside” program, despite the global economic meltdown, generating a business opportunity of over 18,000 Billion RMB (Chinese Yuan Renminbi). Such an ambitious program not only supports domestic growth, but also benefits neighboring countries. Many Taiwanese companies have taken the orders for the program, helping supply Chinese villages with a variety of goods, from HDTVs to washing machines. (http://biz.cn.yahoo.com/09-03-/43/sx8v.html)
除了家電下鄉外,近期中國政府未來也規劃進行醫療改革計畫與十大建設(鋼鐵、汽車、船舶及石化等十大產業)以期振興國內經濟,此類大型國家計劃之啟動,預料對專案人才及管理需求又是一波高潮。自北京奧運啟動前,中國政府即已著手培育大量專案管理人才以應付奧運及未來國家發展的需要,以專案管理師(PMP)而言至今中國已經約有兩萬五千名。政府將專案管理證照列為國家考試技能之一,並且與PMP證書相互融合,持有PMI所發給之證書,可換取中國項目管理師資格。基本上,在中國有三種產業最需要專案管理人才,一是大型活動,例如奧運的承包商被要求具備專案管理證照才能標案發包,二零一零年的上海世博會也是;二是營建工程,如開發高速鐵路;三是IT資訊科技產業,如網路公司、資訊處理或軟體開發等(http://www.028itpx.com/job/a/20071017/1224125989578304.shtml)。 As well as the “Household Appliances To The Countryside” program there are also medical reform plans and the national, coordinated ‘Ten Construction Projects’ (including the steel, motor, ship, and petroleum industries), which were launched to boost domestic growth. Such national programs will lead to another surge in the demand for project management professionals. Actually, prior to taking on the Olympic Games, China had already started to train large number of project management professionals to cope with the needs of China’s predicted growth. So far, there are over 25,000 PMPs in China, and the government has made some global recognized project management credentials an equivalent to their own National Certification Exam. This means PMI’s PMP certificate upholders are eligible for China’s own project management credential. Basically, there has been a surge in demand for project management professionals in three of China’s industries. Firstly, demand from large-scale national activities, such as the 2008 Olympic Games and the Expo 2010 Shanghai, which have regulations requiring the suppliers to have project management credentials. Secondly, demand from major construction projects, such as high way construction. Thirdly, demand from the IT Industry, such as internet connection companies, programming and database companies. (http://www.028itpx.com/job/a/20071017/1224125989578304.shtml)
因此,政府的推波助瀾,將讓專案管理成為中國未來最受歡迎及最有潛力的黃金專業証照之一。實際職場上,也因為政府的重視,傳統專案經理逐漸從弱矩陣轉向強矩陣的組織型態,也就是專案經理的地位與職能在傳統企業架構中日益加重,顯示未來具有專業的專案經理炙手可熱的趨勢。 Therefore, due to the government’s investment in projects, the PMP credential should be the most demanded certificate in China. The government’s requirement for gaining management credentials will lead to a reform in Chinese companies’ organizational structure. Traditional project manager’s role in a weak matrix structure will be transferred to a strong matrix structure, and so their positions and roles can be more and more influential. Trained project managers will become very important and powerful in an organization.
對中國的專案經理而言,現今拜科技進步之便,進修的管道相當多。越來越多的專案經理人選擇考取專案管理證照來強化自身的專案能力。過去不少專案經理是由本身在核心專長有優於常人的表現(如業務銷售、技術開發等)而升任為企業中特定專案的經理人,然而這樣卻走向著名的彼得原理陷阱:「每個人都由原本能勝任的職位,晉升到他無法勝任的職位」。為此,在政府的積極培育下,中國大陸的專案經理也開始主動學習如何管理專案,提升自己從技術面轉為管理面的管理能力。 These days, Chinese project workers, with the aid of modern technology, have many ways of enhancing their abilities. From the options open to them, more and more have chosen to study project management to improve their career. In the past, many project managers we
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